After 2 years of continuous decline, solar module prices are slowly on their way up due to an ‘artificial shortage’ created by manufacturers cutting production across the supply chain. However, these changes remain ‘too small to register on price charts’ as of now, observes German online module trading platform pvXchange.
Meanwhile, it is the high-efficiency solar modules that are vanishing quickly from the market while some dealers stockpile them to prepare for the expected shortage. Martin Schachinger, Managing Director of pvXchange, believes such modules are likely to be repriced and sold at a higher price as demand grows and supply is delayed, especially from major brands.
Analysts claim that some tier 1 Chinese manufacturers have not produced ‘a single module’ in 2025 so far. Some of them remain focused on clearing out inventory first.
Prices for high-efficiency mono or bifacial modules with HJT, n-type TOPCon or XBC cells with over 22.5% efficiency declined by 45.7% year-on-year (YoY) in January 2025 to €0.125/W. There, however, have been no further declines as of February 14, 2025.
On the other hand, pvXchange reports a 3.8% increase in the price of full-black modules with the same configuration from €0.135/W since January this year, and a 4.8% jump for mainstream modules from €0.110/W over the same period.
For low-cost modules comprising stock lasts, factory seconds, insolvency goods, low-output or already used modules, the average price declined by 22.2% between January 2024 and January 2025 to €0.070/W but till February 14, 2025 it went up by 7.7%.
The TaiyangNews PV Price Index for calendar week 9 confirms this trend as the year so far has been mostly flat to positive for polysilicon, wafer, cell and solar glass categories, with only 2 TOPCon module types registering a small decline in prices.
Restocking for small and mid-sized PV systems is not expected until April or May this year. Larger systems will likely not be affected since their planning and shipping timings are planned much ahead in advance.
Schachinger stressed that despite the above trends, overcapacity continues to remain high, particularly in China, and yet global demand will continue to grow even if at a slower pace. For module manufacturers, this is the time for a reset and investing in higher-quality materials and ‘reversing’ the quality decline from the recent low-price phase.
Installers too will need to adapt to changing market dynamics as Europe brings in new regulations, something like Germany’s Solar Peak Act. There will be newer business models, increased use of intelligent energy management systems and flexible tariffs where companies with deep pockets and first mover advantage will reign supreme.
