The CPIA said China’s solar industry expanded rapidly in 2024, continuing strong growth since 2022. A backlog of delayed projects led to a record 148.1% surge in 2023, raising new capacity to 216.88 GW. Despite this, 2024 saw further growth, with installations up 28.3% to 277.57 GW, pushing total PV capacity to 887 GW.

The CPIA’s 2024-25 roadmap warned that growth may slow, projecting 2025 additions between 215 GW and 255 GW, a sharp decline. It said policy shifts, including new distributed solar regulations and electricity market reforms, are causing uncertainty and investor caution due to delays in provincial-level implementation.

China’s solar companies faced sharp declines in 2024. Core supply chain companies saw a 28.8% drop in revenue and a 72.2% plunge in profits. Accounts receivable periods lengthened from 69 days in 2023 to 180 days in 2024.

Overcapacity and price drops drove the downturn in profitability, with prices falling across the value chain. Polysilicon prices fell from CNY 65 ($8.96)/kg to CNY 40/kg, while n-type 182mm wafers dropped from CNY 2 to CNY 1. Tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) solar cells fell from CNY 0.45/W to below CNY 0.30/W.

Despite price declines, production rose last year. Polysilicon output grew 23.6% to 1.82 million tons, wafer production rose 12.7% to 753 GW, cell production grew 10.6% to 654 GW, and module output expanded 13.5% to 588 GW.

The CPIA said it expects global solar installations to grow in 2025, forecasting 531 GW to 583 GW of new capacity. A bullish scenario could see a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by demand in emerging markets, especially in Latin America and the Middle East, it said.