The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside of China, was assessed at $19.860/kg or $0.042/W this week, reflecting a 1.10% decline based on reported buy-sell indications.
Pessimism in the global polysilicon market has deepened, driven by a persistent oversupply that exceeds buyers’ total monthly purchasing volumes. Several global polysilicon buyers have confirmed maintaining substantial inventories, which has contributed to the current subdued trading activity. One market participant additionally noted that their ingot production operations in Southeast Asia are currently running at levels that consume only about half of the monthly polysilicon volumes secured through long-term contracts, indicating ongoing accumulation of global polysilicon inventories, whether held by sellers or buyers.
Despite this, some buyers have reportedly continued placing spot orders beyond their contracted commitments. These transactions are primarily driven by the greater pricing flexibility offered by spot purchases, which buyers leverage to diversify their supply sources at lower costs and better manage future risks.
Suppliers meanwhile reportedly remain focused on the potential growth in orders for solar modules and cells exported to the U.S., viewing such trends as key indicators of broader global polysilicon demand.
Additionally, Indonesia’s solar cell production projects are reportedly accelerating expansion, which could modestly increase demand for wafers derived from global polysilicon.
Market participants observe that the historically stable relationships between buyers and sellers are gradually eroding, giving way to more fragmented trading patterns and irregular orders, noting that a new dynamic in transactions and customer relationships appears to be emerging.
The China Mono Grade, OPIS' assessment for mono-grade polysilicon prices within the country, remained stable this week at CNY 30.750 ($4.27)/kg, equivalent to CNY 0.065/W. Similarly, the China Mono Premium, OPIS' price assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot production, held steady at CNY 37.625/kg, or CNY 0.079/W. Both prices remained unchanged from the previous week.
Polysilicon prices remained stable this week following five consecutive weeks of decline, primarily due to muted trading activity and the lack of price adjustments by major producers, according to trade sources. Wafer manufacturers have reportedly adopted a more cautious purchasing approach, procuring polysilicon at a slower pace and in smaller volumes amid persistent bearish sentiment regarding the short-term price outlook across the photovoltaic supply chain.
The ongoing market downturn has also heightened expectations for further reductions in polysilicon production. Two new projects in Qinghai—with annual capacities of 100,000 MT and 50,000 MT, respectively—had initially been slated to begin trial production and ramp up output in the second quarter. However, given the current price levels and weak market outlook, industry insiders believe it is unlikely these producers will launch products in the near term.
In an effort to address the ongoing market challenges, multiple sources have indicated that the industry is considering a consolidation plan under which the six largest polysilicon producers would acquire all remaining small-scale production capacities. In parallel, a leading manufacturer has reportedly suggested a coordinated initiative among producers to collectively curtail output, with the aim of stabilizing prices within a reasonable range.
However, sources caution that significant uncertainty surrounds both the feasibility and future direction of the acquisition proposal. A major obstacle lies in aligning the diverse interests of investors, acquisition targets, and local governments, which complicates efforts to establish a unified consensus. Furthermore, sources noted that determining a standardized acquisition price—based on the scale and output volume of the targeted polysilicon capacities—will be essential for this plan to move forward and be implemented.
Broader pessimism surrounding market demand in 2025 is now exerting downward pressure on China's polysilicon futures market. According to data released by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on May 19, futures prices for polysilicon deliveries from June 2025 through April 2026 have all dropped below CNY 40/kg. The highest settlement price, for June 2025 delivery, stood at CNY 37.04/kg, representing a 1.55% decrease over the current spot price assessed by OPIS this week.
