China will adjust domestic gasoline and diesel retail price caps at 24:00 on Monday,marking a new round of pricing changes,according to a report by China Central Television(CCTV).
Many netizens said they have received notification messages,which said that fuel prices are expected to rise,with a“relatively large increase”anticipated,per the report.
CCTV cited forecasts based on the latest tracked changes in international crude oil prices,indicating that the projected increase in retail price caps for refined oil products has far exceeded the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan($7)per ton,making an upward revision highly likely.Estimates suggest that domestic prices for No.92 gasoline may rise above 9 yuan($1.25)per liter.
Recently,escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions,pushing up international crude oil prices.
According to professional monitoring models cited by CCTV,as of the close on March 19–the ninth working day of the current domestic pricing cycle–the reference crude price change rate stood at 45.21 percent.Based on this,the corresponding increase in domestic retail price caps for refined oil products is estimated at around 2,000 yuan per ton.Analysts noted that with the adjustment window approaching,the crude price change rate may continue to rise in the short term,with the final increase in retail price caps possibly reaching around 2,200 yuan per ton.
On a per-liter basis,No.92 gasoline could rise by 1.73-yuan,No.95 gasoline by 1.83 yuan,and No.0 diesel by 1.87 yuan,per the CCTV report.If the adjustment is implemented at this level,domestic No.92 gasoline prices would move above 9 yuan per liter nationwide,meaning that filling a 50-liter tank would cost private car owners about 86.5 yuan more,according to CCTV.
Since the beginning of 2026,domestic refined oil retail price caps have undergone five adjustment windows,resulting in four increases and one instance where prices were left unchanged.Compared with levels at the end of 2025,gasoline prices have risen by 1,160 yuan per ton,while diesel prices have increased by 1,120 yuan per ton,CCTV reported.
Since the start of the current pricing cycle on March 9,wholesale prices in the refined oil market have risen sharply.According to monitoring data cited by CCTV,as of Thursday,the average market price of No.92 gasoline stood at 9,479 yuan per ton,up 14.8 percent from the previous pricing cycle,while diesel averaged 7,977 yuan per ton,up 15.9 percent.
Analysts,as quoted by the CCTV report,said that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have created supply gaps in the global oil market,pushing international crude oil prices higher,with Brent crude futures rising above$100 per barrel.Meanwhile,concerns over potential supply shortages have persisted domestically,with ensuring supply to the retail market becoming a priority for major state-owned enterprises,further supporting wholesale price increases,they added.
Looking ahead,analysts said that in the short term,international crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated amid continued geopolitical uncertainties,according to the report.
