In a new whitepaper on the world’s growth to net zero, InfoLink Consulting says it is imperative for the world to reduce the cost of renewables if it targets to limit global warming below 2°C and 1.5°C, and forecasts 1 TW solar capacity addition annually by 2030 to reach a cumulative installed capacity of 6 TW.
Titled On the Road to Net Zero Powering a Green Future: A Forecast to 2030 for Solar, Wind, and Energy Storage, the Taiwanese market intelligence firm’s whitepaper says solar’s levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) remains lower than traditional energy sources in the 3 markets covered in the whitepaper—China, the US and Europe+UK, despite high commodity prices and supply chain costs for the PV industry.
In 2022, global annual solar power capacity addition was 250 GW that took the cumulative to 1 TW. China contributed 87 GW last year, while this year it is likely to install 150 GW and reach 400 GW of new capacity additions/year in 2030. According to InfoLink, the country can reach 893 GW cumulative PV and 474 GW wind capacity by 2025 achieving its 1.2 TW target ahead of time, something that Global Energy Monitor also believes (see Chinese RE Growth Progressing Fast).
Europe will add 64 GW new PV this year , growing to nearly 100 GW annually by 2030. Major European markets this year and going forward will be Germany, Spain, France, the Netherlands, Poland, the UK.
The US, on the other hand, will recover from the UFLPA issues and price fluctuations to report between 30 GW to 40 GW annual installations this year, thanks mainly to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). By 2030, it can be assumed to add 115 GW annually.
InfoLink also covers the PV supply chain scenario which currently abounds with major manufacturing expansion announcements. While polysilicon was the major bottleneck for the entire industrial chain in 2021 and 2022, strong growth rate of 75% in 2023 now hints towards excess supply pushing down prices in the process. Global polysilicon capacity is expected to reach 4,831,148 MT or more than 2 TW by the end of 2030, up from 507 GW in 2022.
For wafer production, the annual production capacity is expected to reach nearly 1.4 TW in 2030 with China taking almost 95% of global capacity, growing from almost 600 GW in 2022 when top 5 makers accounted for 385 GW or 65% of market share. As both vertically integrated and professional cell makers expand wafer capacity, the percentage of the top 5 will likely come down.
InfoLink predicts M10 to remain the mainstream wafer format by the end of 2030, accounting for 60% of the market share.
Global installed capacity of solar cells reached 590 GW at the end of 2022, which is set to increase by over 80% during 2023 and 2024 due to technological advancements. TOPCon capacity is expected to reach slightly above 1.6 TW by 2030.
Wind and energy storage markets are also covered in the whitepaper.
（Picture: Veer）
