GreenergyDaily

May. 16, 2025

1. Donald Trump’s tariffs on China will likely remain at a level expected to severely curtail Chinese exports to the US after the 90-day truce, analysts and investors say, suggesting Beijing may have to endure further economic pain despite active talks.

2. US levies on Chinese products imposed this year will likely hold at 30% through late 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey that had 22 respondents from a mix of Asian, European and US fund managers, banks and research firms. While much lower than before the thaw this week, the current rate is high enough to wipe out 70% of Chinese shipments to the world’s largest economy in the medium term, Bloomberg Economics has projected.

3. The results of the survey, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, reveal a low expectation for trade negotiation to quickly undo duties Trump imposed on China during his second term. Official data due Monday are forecast to show a slowdown in China’s industrial output in April as tariff threats weighed on exports, according to a separate survey.

4. “We expect that trade negotiations to end up in shallow surface level deals,” said Kelly Chen, an economist with DNB Bank. “There is not enough time for the relative positions of US and China to change materially enough” before the 2026 US mid-term election that will serve as a potential deadline for a deal, she said.

5. Highlighting the uncertainty over the countries’ ability to resolve their conflict, expectations become more divided further out into the future, with seven respondents seeing tariffs dip below 30% in six months’ time while six projecting higher levies.

6. If the US and China reach a final trade agreement, the tariffs could come down to 20%, according to the median forecast.

7. Respondents overwhelmingly predict that tariffs from Trump’s first term will remain, as lowering them would be a major concession that may anger his base. Those levies average about 12%, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics.