GreenergyDaily

Jun. 23, 2025

Goldman Sachs flagged risks to global energy supply amid concerns over a potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz that would lead to significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices, the bank said in a note dated Sunday.

The bank estimated Brent crude could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month and remained down by 10% for the following 11 months.

Prices would then moderate, with Brent averaging around $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, it said in a note.

Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January after Washington joined Israel over the weekend in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.

Goldman highlighted that prediction markets, despite limited liquidity, now reflect a 52% probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, citing data from Polymarket.

Additionally, it noted that a drop in Iranian supply by 1.75 million barrels per day could push Brent to a peak of around $90 per barrel.

"While the events in the Middle East remain fluid, we think that the economic incentives, including for the U.S. and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong," Goldman Sachs said.