GreenergyDaily

Mar. 18, 2026

China, the world’s biggest crude importer, is close to tapping its vast commercial oil reserves as the Middle East war shows no signs of ending, according to FGE NexantECA.

Refiners could start taking as much as 1 million barrels a day over the next four to six weeks, the industry consultant told Bloomberg. Processors — particularly in southern China — may be allowed to draw on commercial stockpiles to limit the extent of run cuts or prevent shutdowns, it said.

It’s a lever that China can afford to pull. After more than a year of aggressive stockpiling, Beijing has built up an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of reserves that could be tapped if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. Strategic inventories would likely be left untouched, but even drawing on commercial stocks would require layers of internal approvals.

“Given sailing times, it would be a bit early for Gulf disruptions to be felt in China,” said Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst at geospatial analytics company Kayrros. China’s above-ground crude oil stocks dipped by about 7 million barrels between March 5 and 16, but this could be nothing more than “normal short-term volatility,” he said.

Kayrros estimated earlier this month that China’s above-ground commercial inventories were at 851 million barrels, and its strategic stockpiles were 413 million barrels. Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said last week the reserves totaled around 1.4 billion barrels.

Such moves are likely to be “precautionary”, according to China-based GL Consulting, adding that state-owned refiners are expected to prioritize gasoline and diesel production over chemicals to safeguard domestic fuel supply. The impact from the disruptions will likely emerge gradually from late March into early April, GL said.